Published on: July 1, 2022
TWIA's 2022 Rate Adequacy Analysis indicates that the Association's current rates are inadequate by the following percentages:
2022 Residential Rate Indication: 15%
2022 Commercial Rate Indication: 11%
Rate Adequacy Presentation for the July 18, 2022 Actuarial & Underwriting Committee meeting.
Pursuant to Texas Insurance Code Section 2210.3511 the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association (TWIA or the Association) is making its rate adequacy analysis publicly available in advance of the meeting of the TWIA Board of Directors at which its annual rate filing will be considered.
The material provided includes:
- All user selected hurricane model input assumptions
- Output data with the same content and in the same format that is customarily provided to (i) TWIA by hurricane modelers and (ii) the Texas Department of Insurance by TWIA.
This material is being provided in Excel and PDF file formats, providing a searchable electronic format that allows for efficient analysis. The material includes detailed information regarding (i) industry loss experience for the catastrophe area and (ii) average annual hurricane loss output by county from each of the catastrophe models. The rate adequacy analysis relies on projected hurricane loss ratios derived from each of these sources.
Actuarial estimates are subject to uncertainty from various sources, including changes in claims reporting patterns, claim settlement patterns, judicial decisions, legislation, weather, and economic conditions. Any analysis of projected loss amounts involves estimates of future contingencies. While the analysis represents our best professional judgment, arrived at after careful analysis of the available information, it is important to note that a significant degree of variation from our analysis is not only possible, but is, in fact, probable. The sources of this variation are numerous.
Differences between our projections and actual amounts depend on the extent to which future experience conforms to the assumptions made for the rate making analysis. It is certain that the actual experience will not conform exactly to the assumptions used in this analysis. Actual amounts will differ from projected amounts to the extent that actual experience is better or worse than expected.
In its rate adequacy analysis TWIA adheres to the Statement of Principles Regarding Property and Casualty Insurance Ratemaking adopted by the Board of Directors of the Casualty Actuarial Society in May 1988.
When performing its rate adequacy analysis TWIA follows the procedures described in current effective Actuarial Standards of Practice (ASOPs) including ASOP 38 and ASOP 39 adopted on December 15, 2000.
TWIA’s rate adequacy analysis is also consistent with the general rate requirements and rate standards provided in Texas Insurance Code Chapter 2210.
TWIA’s 2022 Rate Adequacy Analysis, posted pursuant to Sec. 2210.3511, Texas Insurance Code, consists of the following documents:
- A summary of the hurricane model input assumptions [Assumptions 2022.pdf]
- A memorandum describing the TWIA Residential Rate Adequacy Analysis, including a discussion of actuarial methodologies and conclusions [Residential Memo 2022.pdf]
- Residential Rate Indication Exhibits [Residential Exhibit 2022.xlsx] [Residential Exhibit 2022.pdf]
- A memorandum describing the Commercial Rate Adequacy Analysis, including a discussion of actuarial methodologies and conclusions [Commercial Memo 2022.pdf]
- Commercial Rate Indication Exhibits [Commercial Exhibit 2022.xlsx] [Commercial Exhibit 2022.pdf]
- Model Output provided by modelers:
- AIR Average Annual Loss by County [County Loss AIR 2022.xlsx] [County Loss AIR 2022.pdf]
- RMS Average Annual Loss by County [County Loss RMS 2022.xlsx] [County Loss RMS 2022.pdf]
- CoreLogic Average Annual Loss by County [County Loss CoreLogic 2022.xlsx] [County Loss CoreLogic 2022.pdf]
- Impact Forecasting Average Annual Loss by County [County Loss IF 2022.xlsx] [County Loss IF 2022.pdf]
- AIR Event File [AIR Event File 2022.xlsx]
- RMS Event File [RMS Event File 2022.xlsx]
- CoreLogic Event File [CoreLogic Event File 2022.xlsx]
- Impact Forecasting Event File [IF Event File 2022.xlsx]
- Comparison of Hurricane Frequency for Selected Catastrophe Models vs. NOAA [2022 Frequency Comparison.xlsx]
- TWIA Catastrophe Modeling Results on Exposure as of 11/30/2021 [TWIA Hurricane Model Output.pdf]